Regional response to EU afforestation of agricultural land policy: a spatial analysis by using an ordinal regression model

Abstract

This article centres its interest around qualitative or partial changes in land uses focusing on alterations in human manipulations of agricultural land. In this respect, the interest lays at the evaluation of EU afforestation policy through the conversion of marginal agricultural land into forest land. Therefore, the study deals with the importance of European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development through the implementation of afforestation schemes in rural communities. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the spatial patterns of afforestation in Greece, the driving factors behind these patterns as well as the degree of the success of the EU policy for forest expansion through afforestation of arable land.

Methodologically speaking, the empirical analysis is based on an ordinal logit regression model targeted at providing a deeper understanding of the major driving factors influencing rural communities’ response to afforestation policy. Most of the explanatory variables depict regional economic, social and environmental characteristics. The results indicate that response to afforestation policy is highly influenced by urban phenomena that through the determination of land rent. Agricultural characteristics and the use of technology are also important determinants of response to afforestation.