Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Middle and Long Distance Running Events in Mediterranean Games

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to record the longitudinal progress of the winners’ performance, as well as to predict
the finish times of the male and female bronze medal holders in the middle and long distance running events in
the 2013 Mediterranean Games. The recorded performances regarded the first three medal winners (270 men & 102
women) in the middle and long distance events during the 16 Games which are organized till today. The performances qualitative analysis was based on Pearson’s correlation, while the relative to gender differences in running times were evaluated by using the t-test of independent values. The non-linear regression was implemented for the prediction
of the athletes’ performance. The results confirmed that the male performance in the amount of the studied events was significantly better than that of women. Furthermore, at the above running events a significant improvement was observed in the male gold medal winners in contrast to female gold medal holders whose running performance evolution was not significantly improved. The regression analysis recorded that in all male middle and long distance events the prediction of the athletes’ performance for the achievement of the 3rd place in the next Games varies. Thus, in 800m the R2 value was satisfactory (0.50, F=13.65, p=0.002), while in 3000m Steeplechase the performance predictive ability was weak (0.16, F=1.90, p=0.198). Additionally, the performance prediction in the middle and long distance events which is needed for the female athletes to win the bronze medal during the future Games ranged from 11-48%. Conclusively, it is recorded that the male winners’ performance in the middle and long distance events in the Mediterranean Games improved linearly, while the running performance of the female winners marginally improved. The ability to predict accurately the performance needed for both male and female athletes to win the bronze medal during the next Mediterranean Games is limited.